Dynamic Model for the Epidemiology of Diarrhea and Simulation Considering Multiple Disease Carriers

초록

Diarrhea is responsible for killing around 525,000 children every year, even though it is preventable and treatable. This research focuses on both houseflies' roles and humans' roles in carrying pathogens causing diarrhea as multiple disease carriers. Both human and fly compartmental models are simulated with five diseases control strategies in order to identify the epidemic dynamics. The framework considers the life cycle of flies modeled into eggs, larvae, pupae, susceptible flies, and carrier flies, while the human system follows a compartment model as susceptible, infected, recovered, and back to susceptible again (SIRS). The relationships are modeled into an ordinary differential equation-based compartmental system. Then, the control parameters of the compartmental framework are analyzed. In order to propose effective control methods, five control strategies are considered: (1) elimination of flies' breeding site, (2) sanitation, (3) installation of UV light trap, (4) good personal and food hygiene, and (5) water purification. Then, overall, ten control scenarios using the five control strategies are analyzed. Among them, effective control solutions considering various dynamic epidemiology are provided with the simulations and analyses. The proposed framework contributes to an effective control strategy in reducing the number of both flies and infected humans, since it minimizes the spread of the disease and considers cost-effectiveness.

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